High-tech industrial policy can deliver technological hegemony, running trade surpluses that erode rivals’ innovation — unless they respond in kind.

When corporate debt amplifies workers’ income risk, the natural rate of interest can settle at two levels — and QE or public debt decides which one prevails.

When the Fed tightens, small economies’ exports and GDP fall even as their currency depreciates — floating rates can’t shield them, but capital-flow and credit tools can.

In the COVID crash, foreign investors with dollar debts and FX hedges sold dollar bonds to meet margin calls — amplifying the meltdown.

When the Fed opens dollar swap lines, currencies firm, stocks rise, and credit stress eases — cushioning the dollar shortages that recur in every global crisis.

When sectors are tightly linked, a supply shock to one drags down demand across others — so many “demand shocks” are really sectoral supply shocks in disguise.

The world’s natural interest rate has fallen over three points since the late 1970s, driven mainly by slowing productivity growth and longer lifespans.

Exchange rates are driven less by interest-rate gaps than by banks creating money — when one currency’s loans and deposits shift, monetary forces dominate, resolving several exchange-rate puzzles.