Industrial policy on high-tech tradable sectors leads to trade surpluses and capital outflows that erode rivals’ innovation — unless they respond in kind.

When corporate debt amplifies workers’ income risk, the natural rate of interest can settle at two equilibria — and QE or public debt decides which one prevails.

When the Fed tightens, small economies’ exports and GDP fall even as their currencies depreciate — floating rates don’t insulate them, and capital-flow and credit tools cushion output but not inflation.

In financial crises, investors rush specifically for US-dollar cash rather than other currencies, reflecting the dollar’s dominant role in global finance.

High-frequency swap-line shocks show that Fed dollar swap lines appreciate recipient currencies, lift equities, and ease the credit stress of the dollar shortages that recur in every global crisis.

When sectors are complementary, a supply shock in one sector spreads through the production network and moves aggregate output and prices together — a demand shock in disguise.

The world’s natural interest rate has fallen by about three percentage points since the mid-1970s, driven mainly by slowing productivity growth and rising longevity.

Exchange rates are driven less by interest-rate gaps than by banks creating money.