Carbon pricing raises inflation and cuts output, hitting carbon-intensive countries and dirty firms hardest, though general-equilibrium adjustments soften the aggregate blow.

When the central bank tightens, highly leveraged firms see borrowing costs jump far more than default risk alone warrants — constrained lenders charge them a premium.

US financial shocks spill abroad fast: tighter American credit conditions push up spreads and chill activity in the UK, revealing an international credit channel.

Most of the link between volatility and recessions runs through a shared global growth factor, so single-country studies overstate uncertainty’s punch.

Using the first high-frequency UK rate surprises, a monetary tightening cools output and prices, lifts the pound, and widens credit spreads at home and abroad.

Whether financial integration pulls countries’ business cycles apart or together depends entirely on whether the shock hitting them is common or country-specific.

Banking crises ride in from abroad — booming credit in the rest of the world predicts a crisis at home, especially in financially open economies.

When global banks lever up and push credit across borders, rising house prices and stronger currencies inflate collateral and supercharge the boom — most where loan-to-value limits are loose and debt is in foreign currency.

Spikes in firm-level uncertainty hit output harder than economy-wide uncertainty, yet even together they explain only a modest slice of business-cycle swings.

Cutting rates can quietly fuel financial crises when sticky bank lending rates remove their automatic brake — so rate policy needs a macroprudential partner.

When global credit surges, house prices and spending jump far more in emerging economies than rich ones — housing collateral drives the rich world, exchange rates the emerging one.

A U.S. housing slump spills strongly into other advanced economies but barely dents major emerging ones, which prove surprisingly resilient to American shocks.

As trade ties shifted, China’s pull on Latin American growth tripled while America’s halved — rewiring which giant drives the region’s business cycle.